Finance

Trading Strategies For Commodity Markets

The best way to learn how to trade in the commodity markets is to take lessons directly from a successful trader. However, even if you found the right persons, and they taught you all they know, this in itself does not guarantee that you will make money the way they do. For this, you need to keep a good trading strategy yourself, if you are to succeed in doing commodity futures trading.

Trade Correctly Or Not At All

A lot of people don’t realize it, but they end up learning through trial and error. However, you are unlikely to become a good trader if you use this method. The first thing you need to do to trade the right way is to read as much as possible about commodity trading. This may not give you the best trading plan, but it will definitely prepare you for the trades you might want to take in the future. You will gain more knowledge about the risks you are about to take, and how to limit them. You will also have the benefit of learning from the mistakes made by the experts, rather than having to go through them yourself.

Essentials Of A Sound Trading Strategy

The first decision you need to take while formulating a trading strategy is to decide how much capital you want to invest, as this will greatly determine how much you will end up making as profit. The more you invest, the better your chances of making money. It provides for more lasting power in the market if you have more ‘risk capital’. Risk Capital is the amount of money you are willing to lose without it affecting your way of life. The next step is to decide what your average trade investment will be – as in the value of each trade taken.

The four essentials of any good trading strategy are as follows. Firstly, always remember to trade in the direction of the market trend. Remember, the market trend is your only friend. Secondly, always keep stops in place. They will determine how much capital you will lose. Thirdly, let your profits run as deep as you can. Don’t be in a hurry to exit a trade if you are making only a little money. This sounds like it is easy to do, but is perhaps the most difficult of all the four principals. Lastly, manage your risk wisely and carefully. Make sure that the risk reward ratio is always leaning in your favor when you are taking a trade.

Use Of Technical Analysis

Most traders use technical analysis as part of their trading strategy. Technical analysis provides many vital tools that allow you to be more informed about the trades you are taking, and help to decide which ones to ignore. Among other things, indicators that are used for technical analysis allow you to determine trends, entry points, stops, target prices, supports, resistances, possible breakouts and breakdowns. It would be wise to use these indicators when you are formulating a strategy to trade in the commodity markets and also with commodity options.

Remember, it is wise to always trade a commodity that you are knowledgeable about. Try to master one commodity and know the factors that affect its movements. Know what you are trading, and you will find your self on the winning side more often.

Commodity Trading and Stochastic Oscillators

The stochastic oscillator was developed in the late fifties by George Lane. It is an oscillator which shows momentum in a commodity by comparing the current day’s close to the high/low ranges over a specified amount of days. Consistent closings near the higher side of the range indicates buying pressure while a close consistently on the lower side of the range indicates weakness and selling pressure. It shows whether a commodity is overbought or oversold. The calculation of the formula is as follows:

%K = (Recent Close-Lowest Low (n) / Highest High (n) – Lowest Low (n)) x 100

%D = 3 period moving average of %K

And (n) = the number of periods used for calculations

Hence, a 20 day stochastic oscillator would take the most recent close, the highest high of the last 20 days as well as the lowest low of the last 20 days. The general time period used is the 14 time period. These formulas are given here for clarification only. One rarely ever needs to calculate these values manually, as the software used for charting will automatically plot it straight on your commodities chart.

Stochastic Oscillator – How Do We Use It?

Essentially, Stochastic Oscillators have three types. Fast, full and slow. By default, most software for trading uses the fast one. Here, the oscillator comprises of two lines. The first one is %K which measures the raw momentum of the commodity. As discussed earlier, %D is just a simple moving average of %K, but is still more important than %K. Generally, it is seen that the %K line is the faster line, and the %D line is the slower one. A trader needs to look out for %D line and price both moving to either overbought territory, or the oversold territory. You can sell a commodity when it moves above 80, then crosses over to begin moving down again and buy when it reaches 20 and begins to move up again. The slow or full stochastic oscillators are smoother, as compared to the fast stochastic. However, it is important to remember that just because the oscillator shows that it is above 80 does not mean that it is overbought. It may well continue to trend upwards a long time after that.

Divergences

Sometimes, something unusual happens. There is sometimes a divergence between the prices and the stochastic oscillator. When prices are moving up the oscillator is showing that it is oversold, and vice versa. This tells us that the current trend is losing steam. So, if the commodity moves up, but the %D is going down, this would be a bearish sign. However, it must be noted that the signal is not considered a divergence till %K line moves across the %D line in a direction opposite to the price. One has to be careful with the stochastic oscillator as there are a lot of whipsaw possibilities. Divergence trades are best taken when the oscillator moves below 80 once, moves back up again, and gives a double top formation to move down again below 80.

It is not advised to use this oscillator by itself for commodity and commodity options trading. It is always better to get verification from as many different indicators, but this indicator will give you a very good idea about the trend momentum of a commodity.